St. Patrick's Day Joke
Two Irish guys walk out of a bar....
Really, it could happen!
March 16, 2008
November 15, 2006
Is The Unemployment Rate Calculated Correctly?
Am I splitting hairs or is this materially misstated?
For the past decade I have thought that something was dreadfully wrong with two figures released by the US Department of Labor and their Bureau of Labor Statistics: Specifically Unemployment and Productivity. Today I only have time to comment on one so let’s look at unemployment.
Unemployment is defined by the BLS as:
"Persons aged 16 years and older who had no employment during the reference week, were available for work, except for temporary illness, and had made specific efforts to find employment sometime during the 4-week period ending with the reference week. Persons who were waiting to be recalled to a job from which they had been laid off need not have been looking for work to be classified as unemployed."
The unemployment rate is the unemployed as a percentage of the labor force.
What bothers me most about this definition is that it does not take into consideration the Free Agent Nation we live in i.e. the independent contractors, business owners and temporary workers. This exclusion leads me to believe that the unemployment rate is actually higher than the stated rate at times.
Some may argue that the exclusion is immaterial as these people are not included in the numerator nor are the included in the denominator.
If we agree the number of non-counted persons is material which I believe it to be the question then becomes one of flow. During any given 4 week measurement period are more people joining the ranks of Free Agent Nation or rejoining the traditional Labor Force?
First let's consider the size of those not counted in the unemployment rate. I haven't found a great data point on the number of independent contractors in America but there are some solid data points estimating some 14 million small businesses are owned by Americans and the temp industry appears to be sized at about 2 million people. My gut tells me 6+ million people are contractors. So I will guess about 22 million people are not counted. So if I take 300 million Americans as the population less those under 16 years old (~65 million) and less retirees of 36 million (ok, I'm taking people over 65 years old some may not be retired) you get about 200 million potential people in the potential labor force. I cross check that estimation with the BLS and they report a labor force of ~152 million. So, my 22 million person estimation may be low and I probably have missed a few categories of people in the population that are not in the labor force (military, government (?), disabled persons etc). Either way let's use 22 million as the figure for those not included in the unemployment rate calculation that 'could' be.
If during times of prosperity more people decide to try their hand as a Free Agents and during times of uncertainty some Free Agents seek the security of permanent employment... the question becomes does the flow in and out of Free Agent Nation skew the rate calculation? I think it does by up to about a percentage point each way. So while the calculation isn't 'dreadfully' wrong it may be a bit misleading.
November 04, 2006
Please Stop The Political Robo Calls
Political Telemarketing Do Not Call List Needed
OK, I am stating the obvious. But where is the do not call list for political and not for profits?
We have been receiving three to 5 calls a day this past week many after the kids go down for the night. This is terribly annoying.
October 24, 2006
Avoid This Store
ShopFranke.com Pulls The Bait and Switch
So I ordered what I thought was a Franke FRX02 replacement water filter from what looks like the manufacturer (Franke). What I received was a a Franke FRX02 knock-off.
No brand was visible on the package but each filter box clearly states on the package that it is an alternative to the FRX02 water filter.
This makes me very angry- I was buying one thing and delivered an other thing.
What's more, the packaging of these knock-offs are not padded. The Franke filters arrive in Styrofoam. These are in a flimsy cardboard box that I fear will allow the filters to be banged up while they are in storage awaiting to be used. Not to mention one of them was already open when they arrived at my home.
This was a very disappointing transaction. Anybody else experiencing the same with this site? http://www.shopfranke.com/
October 12, 2006
Professional Whistle Blowers
Oracle to Pay $99 Million Settlement
Check out the settlement this ORCL whistle blower is recieving from the government. Makes me want to join an in-house compliance or accounting team.
"Hicks will receive $17.7 million -- 18 percent of the settlement -- for his complaint as allowed under federal whistle-blower provisions."
July 22, 2006
Title Fees Are Unfair
Title Fees When Refinancing Are Unfair
It has been a while since I refinanced a mortgage but for some reason today I am in the mood to air my annoyances and would like to hear if others have had similar experiences.
While we were refinancing a mortgage a few years ago there was a deja vu of sorts: same title company, same mortgage company, same woman at the title company, same notary so my wife and kid didn't have to tag along etc etc as when we originally bought the property.
There was one similarity that struck me as odd. The title search and insurance fees. I may not have thought them as odd had I been in a different building, room or even a different chair from the original mortgage a few years prior. But this started me wondering why a title search is even necessary on a refinancing? Title insurance too? If somebody had made a claim to the title of my property I should have already known about it or at least my mortgage company should have been contacted.
I complained and they took the fees off the closing statement.
Unfair Credit Card Fees
Citibank's United Airlines Visa - Fees prior to activation
Recently I decided to accept one the unsolicited offer to receive a Visa from Citibank that provides airline miles. The promotion I signed up for was a no annual fee for the first year and 20k miles upon first use of the card. There were a few other terms and conditions which were not surprising regarding paying the bills on time in order to keep the low interest rate etc.
So I, read the mail, call the 800 number to sign-up, get the run down on all the Ts&Cs, then I go on out of town for a few weeks. Upon my return I notice the card has arrived at my home. I don't activate the card for an other two weeks as I really don't want to start using the card until I close out an other credit card and that card's balance isn't due for an other week or so. All told about 6 weeks pass from the time I made the phone call to initiate the process and make a call to activate the credit card. We then go on a family vacation this time taking my new airline miles accruing credit card with me.
When I get home and open the credit card statement (hadn't time yet to setup online access) I notice, an annual fee has been charged, it is considered late and unpaid which triggers a fee, and now all of my current charges are hit with an interest charges although they aren't past due.
Being Underemployed as I am I have the time to complain and did and had all the charges unwound. I can certainly understand the credit card companies run a lot of promotions and may make a mistake and charge me an annual fee when they weren't supposed to....BUT what really ticks me off is that that annual fee is put on your balance BEFORE you receive the card and certainly before the card is activated. This seams to me like a class could take action....